THE EFFECT OF SHOCKS:
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ETHIOPIA
Yilebes Addisu DamtieDepartment of Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable Development, Gambella University
|INDECS 13(3), 450-460, 2015
Full text available here.
Received: 27 May 2015
Besides striving for the increase of production and development, it is also necessary to reduce the losses created by the shocks. The people of Ethiopia are exposed to the impact of both natural and man-made shocks. Following this, policy makers, governmental and non-governmental organizations need to identify the important shocks and their effect and use as an input. This study was conducted to identify the food insecurity shocks and to estimate their effect based on the conceptual framework developed in Ethiopia, Amhara National Regional State of Libo Kemkem District. Descriptive statistical analysis, multiple regression, binary logistic regression, χ2 and independent sample t-test were used as a data analysis technique. The results showed eight shocks affecting households which were weather variability, weed, plant insect and pest infestation, soil fertility problem, animal disease and epidemics, human disease and epidemics, price fluctuation problem and conflict. Weather variability, plant insect and pest infestation, weed, animal disease and epidemics created a mean loss of 3 821,38, 886,06, 508,04 and 1418,32 Birr, respectively. In addition, human disease and epidemics, price fluctuation problem and conflict affected 68,11 %, 88,11 % and 14,59 % of households, respectively. Among the sample households 28,1 % were not able to meet their food need throughout the year while 71,9 % could. The result of the multiple regression models revealed that weed existence (β = -0,142, p < 0,05), plant insect and pest infestation (β = -0,279, p < 0,01) and soil fertility problem (β = -0,321, p < 0,01) had significant effect on income. Asset was found significantly affected by plant insect and pest infestation (β = -0,229, p < 0,01), human disease and epidemics (β = 0,145, p < 0,05), and soil fertility problem (β = -0,317, p < 0,01) while food production was affected by soil fertility problem (β = -0,314, p < 0,01). Binary logistic regression model revealed that food availability of the households was highly affected by the asset (Exp(B) = 1,00, p < 0,1), and food production (Exp(B) = 1,379, p < 0,01).
shocks, effect, Ethiopia, food availability, binary logistic, multiple regression
JEL: C12, D13, H31